NBA MVP rating: Nikola Jokic deserves victory, but Luka Doncic needs to be more careful

The race for the NBA MVP 2021-22 has a chance to become the closest finish since 2004-05, when Steve Nash won with 65 votes for first place against 58 in Shaquille O’Neill. has not yet been said. Nikola Jokic became the favorite in the bets, and if I had a vote, he would really get Jokic.

But, dude, or sad. There will be no wrong vote as long as it is Jokic, Joel Embid or Janis Atetokunmpa. I believe in that. As long as one of these three wins and the other two finish second and third, it will be fair (but I will say that it is surprising that this is not a Big Four conversation in which Luka Doncic is among the main contenders, but we “I’ll get to that) .

Ultimately, opinions regarding the order will vary, but the four best I’ve listed here should be pretty ironic. Fifth place is expected. As I said, my vote for first place will go to Jokic. Here is my final MVP rating for the 2021-22 season.

1. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

Let’s forget the fact that Jokic is the advanced god with the highest PER in recorded history. It’s really ridiculous to dismiss such full-fledged mastery of these indicators as some kind of bait, but even if you intend to take such a position and want to focus on traditional results, believe that Jokic – the only player in NBA history scored an average of at least 27 points, 13 heels and seven assists.

Four other players – three members of the Hall of Fame and another two-time MVP on the way to Springfield – met the number of points and rebounds in the trio: Wilt Chamberlain, Karim Abdul-Jabar, Elgin Baylor and Janice Atetokunmpo, and none of these 66 , 0 true percent of Jokic’s shooting.

Add to this: Jokic will be the first player in the last half century to be in the top 10 in points, rebounds and assists per game, as well as the percentage of goals scored (minimum 400 attempts). There are also these:

Do you want a full offensive production? That’s how many points each of the top three candidates scores for 100 possession through assists and points, according to PBP statistics.

Yokich

26.88

39.44

66.32

Atetokunmpo

22.07

43.41

65.48

Embolitis

15.51

45.38

60.89

If you want to go the way of victory, Jokic led the Nuggets to just two wins less than the Sixers’ Embiid, despite playing all season without Jamal Murray and all but nine games without nine. Michael Porter Jr.. Yes, Embide survived the Ben Simmons drama, but he also had James Harden from the February trading date. Jokic had nothing close to the second All-Star Game this season.

Finally, for me it’s just an eye test. Passing the ball into Jokic’s hands is a guaranteed blow from good to great, both for him and for his teammate, in a way that Embid doesn’t match. Embiid managed to get out of the double teams, but for me it is a skill that separates Jokic in the dispute over the best center in the game: he absolutely crushes the double teams. His death evokes great love, but it is still not enough. It is impossible to defend one on one, but the gap between Jokic’s pass and Embiid’s pass is bigger than the gap between Embiid’s defense and Jokic’s defense. For me, it tilts the scales.

2. Joel Embide, Philadelphia 76ers

Ambid is set to play in almost 70 games and is in line to win the top scorer, leading the Sixers to at least the top four, despite playing with Seth Curry as his best teammate for most of the season (by the way) , it is not meant as a knock on Seth, which is fantastic in the role he plays). As I said, if Embid wins, it will be fair. We’re just going to toss a coin on it.

After all, the Nuggets have just been a better team with Jokic as the only All-Star Game than the Sixers with Embid as the only All-Star Game.

Harden’s removal from the equation, which more or less puts Embiid and Jokic on an equal footing in terms of support, below are the offensive, defensive and clean rankings of the Sixers and Nuggets with their respective MVP candidates leading the solo stars, according to Cleaning the Glass.

76ers with Embiid and without Harden

114.2

108.9

+5.3

Nuggets with Jokic

118.2

109.9

+8.3

You are now teaming up with Embiid and Harden, and the Sixers outperform their opponents by 15 points per 100 possessions with an attack rating north of 122, while Jokic’s Nuggets barely step on the water during the season with a defense that looks all over worse and worse.

This could tip the current in Embiid’s favor. For example, the Sixers took 2nd place, and the Nuggets came into play. In that case, Embid will win the MVP, in my opinion, thanks to a coup at the end of the season. But now Jokic was the best player; not much, but enough, and Philly finished 4th ahead of No. 6 from Denver with about the same number of wins in each. Embyid is not enough to bridge this small gap in performance.

3. Janice Atetokunmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

Embiid may win the official top scorer title, but in 36 minutes Janis with a score of 32.7 is the top scorer in the league (two-tenths of Embiid); it’s a microcosm as far as it’s close. Change the criteria a bit from Jokic’s historical figures and you will see that Janice is the only player in history who averaged at least 29 points, 13 rebounds and 5 assists with a percentage of actual shooting north of 60.

But then again, let’s see what Janis managed to do in the role of Lonely Match of the Stars on the floor. If you remove Chris Middleton, here are the following, defensive and clean ratings of Bucks compared to what Jokic did as a solo star in Denver.

Bucks with Janice and without Middleton

117.0

110.1

+6.9

Nuggets with Jokic

118.2

109.9

+8.3

And now keep in mind that this includes minutes of Atetokunmpa along with Jru Holliday, who has not technically participated in the All-Star Game this season, but is absolutely an all-star player. Remove Holliday, thus isolating Janice as virtually the only All-Star Game on the floor in a role similar to what Jokic had to perform in Denver all season, and Bucks plus 5.2 per 100 with an offensive rating that ranks 36th. place interest on CTG.

Now we’re talking about the small sample size of minutes Janice played without Middleton and Hollid – less than 800 possessions, or about seven or eight games, at CTG. But you still understand. Jokic did more than less. If you think there are other data points that can be manipulated in favor of Janice, don’t forget. I just stick to a level playing field without the help of the Second Uterus of Stars, which is approaching equal playing fields as far as you can imagine.

4. Luke Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

Every day I wonder why Doncic is no longer at the center of this discussion. He started slowly out of shape and I guess once the prevailing mood rejects you, he never thinks about lifting you up. But if you want to talk about single stars raising their teams, look no further than Doncic, whose Dallas Mavericks took the top four seed for just one game from the Warriors 3 without anything resembling another. All-Star Game. next to him.

Doncic is the only top scorer in the league with 20 points per night, who also makes an average of at least nine rebounds and eight assists per game, and Doncic doesn’t quite cross the 20-point marker; he is fifth in the league with 28.3 per night and third in 100 possessions with 39.8.

Go back and look at the table in the Jokic section for points scored for 100 possessions by crediting points and assists. Jokic is scoring the most among the top three candidates (66.32), four points 100 less than Doncic, who is scoring 70.82 points per 100 for the Mavericks, according to PBP Stats. Doncic is not going to win the MVP. But I think he should be more of a realistic conversation than he is. The bet would be fourth place.

Many people will shout for Devin Booker, who is in the top five MVPs. Heck, Hall of Fame member Isaiah Thomas and Draymand Green lobbied for Booker to receive the award. I understand. Booker is arguably the best player on the NBA’s best team, and of course it can be argued that it should have a lot of weight.

But I will focus on the word can be argued in terms of Booker’s ranking in the hierarchy of his own team; personally I think Chris Paul is more valuable. The fact that for me this is even a question, brings Booker out of it. When Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant divorced each other from the MVP when they were teammates, it is arguable that Booker and Paul should do the same.

There is no such dispute with Tatum and Celtics. He is the best player. And next to Phoenix Boston has long been the best team in the league. Ja Morant is also an option, but Memphis Grizzlies star has played in just 56 games and Tatum in 75 on Thursday. Stephen Curry played 64 games also hurts, though that’s not a very small number.

Only Demar Derozan and Tre Young have scored more points than Tatum this season, and the Celtics have outscored their opponents by 638 points with him on the floor, doubling the difference between Embiid and Atetokunmpa’s points and gaining more than 200 points higher than in Yokich plus-407.

Yes, the Celtics have a lot of good players, and their defense, which is a collective effort, is the biggest reason they have become a contender. That’s why Tatum isn’t in a realistic fight for the award. That and he wasn’t as great as the four guys ahead of him on that list. But, nonetheless, he was great and he deserves a place in the top five.

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