Forecast of cash fees for the weekend: Sonic the Hedgehog 2 can come out as an ambulance and all, everywhere and all at once, counter program

Photo: Paramount Pictures (“Sonic the Hedgehog 2”); Universal Pictures and Roberto De Angelis (“Ambulance”); A24 Films (“Everything Everywhere”)

The spring film season is gaining momentum, as this weekend promises the widest selection of new content that will appear in domestic cinemas in 2022.

The leader will undoubtedly be Paramount Sonic the Hedgehog 2 in what increasingly looks like another breakthrough for a video game-adapted franchise. It has since been the first major release to excite a family audience when tracking before a release Sing 2 and Charm over the past holidays, and deferred demand could raise it even higher than previously thought.

Sonic 2The release is something like a potential bookend for exhibitors and movie buffs. The great screening of the first film was blunted by the start of the pandemic and the closure of cinemas a little over two years ago. This photo, which set a record for adapting video games with a three-day domestic bow at $ 58 million, was liked by both fans and young viewers. With an early release in the home release caused by the health crisis in early 2020, the film continued to expand its legion of fans.

Now the sequel completes everything. Moods in families remained the most difficult to adapt to projections throughout the pandemic recovery period, with mothers and adult women in general returning most cautiously to the cinema. The latest demographic movement The lost city to a strong debut of $ 30.5 million last month alone, indicating another significant step in the right direction for the overall rebound of different segments of filmmaking.

Sonic 2 now another litmus test, and unlike the above Sing 2 and Charm, it does not have a new version of COVID-19 (Omicron, late 2021) that dominates the headlines. In fact, the state of the pandemic has greatly weakened both in terms of cases of the virus and the general mood of society, and most people have resumed pre-pandemic activities, including going to the movies.

With delayed demand, reliable pre-sales and a final pre-release marketing corridor that brought the models to a high level of pre-forecasts (and beyond), Sonic the Hedgehog 2 ideally positioned as a family spring event featuring senior video game fans and young children who have just discovered the icon of pop culture in recent years.

This is another theatrically exclusive play for Paramount, a strategy that has done wonders for them with similar to the above The lost city, A glass foreverand Scream just the last few months, not to mention last year Quiet place part II.

Combined with this long-growing demand for a film that could bring parents and children back again or even for the first time since the pandemic, this sequel has consistently seen that its tracking profile makes it rare for child-centered sequels, by comparison and often superior trends of its predecessor.

With a significant presence in premium screens such as Dolby, 4DX, ScreenX and others, Paramount expects about $ 50 million for an internal open frame. Sonic 2 a live preview begins on Wednesday, followed by traditional previews on Thursday, which begin at 3 p.m.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 previously opened to $ 26.1 million internationally in just 31 markets last weekend.

In the course of counter-programming reminiscent of “old times”, Universal and A24 provide a frequently discussed variety of content this weekend from Michael Bay Ambulance and Daniels All everywhere and at once.

The first is Bay’s first theatrical release as a director since 2017 Transformers: The Last Knightand his first non-IP film since 2016 13 hours. The director did 6 Underground for Netflix ever since, which is a good time to mention in the debate about what types of movies bring back movie buffs right now.

Ambulance has not quite reached the highs of our projected models over the past month, although it is largely a side effect of the fact that this is the first “crowded” weekend of the year amid a changing consumer climate. Feedback has been mostly positive, and Universal Marketing has done an excellent job of reaching its target male audience with significant advancement during major sporting events over the past few months. Pre-sales trends are slightly ahead of much more expensive ones The moon.

Competition from other new content is a factor here. Many young and older men will focus on Sonic 2 this weekend, and without an IP to help sell Ambulance, The latest version of Bay is likely to be a slow burn in the rental rather than a smash and grab opening if only sales sales surpass current extrapolations. The film has IMAX present, and it looks like it will be a film made for the big screen, and no doubt for most of its audience it will be a simple solution to watch in a movie.

Universal expects about $ 10 million this weekend. The preview starts on Thursday night.

And last but not least, All Everywhere is hot from expanding its platform with more than $ 1.8 million earned on just 38 sites over the weekend. The film boasts some of the best scores of critics and viewers among all A24 films to date, and the loyal fan base of the studio should prove to be when the film is released in semi-distribution in about 1,200 locations with a storm of social excitement.

This is again another piece of litmus test All Everywhere having an appeal to different demographics. How much the film can expand beyond the A24 audience niche and enter the mainstream will depend on the current market’s ability to maintain that level of new content over the same weekend, which has yet to be tested since last year. The appeal of the crossover is not extreme, but it is worth noting enough.

Either way, expect another strong expansion of the film this weekend, which could potentially persuade A24 and exhibitors to give a genuinely wide rental at some point in the coming weeks.

Weekend forecast ranges

Sonic the Hedgehog 2
Opening the weekend range: $ 60-75 million

Ambulance
Opening the weekend range: 9.5 – 14 million dollars

All everywhere and at once
Wide range of weekend openings: 5 – $ 7.5 million

Weekend forecast and location calculation

Cash projects between Fr. Growth of 38 to 58 percent for the top ten films this weekend with $ 76.8 million in the top ten films last weekend.

Overall, this will only be the second time in 2022 that the top ten domestic countries will receive more than $ 100 million together (previously this was done on BatmanWeekend opening.)

The film Distributor 3-day forecast for the weekend Estimated domestic amount by Sunday, April 10th Location forecast (as of Wednesday) % Change since last Wknd
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Paramount Pictures $ 65,000,000 $ 65,000,000 ~ 4232 NEW
Ambulance Universal pictures $ 11,400,000 $ 11,400,000 ~ 3400 NEW
Morbius Sony Pictures / Colombia $ 11,300,000 $ 57,600,000 ~ 4 268 -71%
The lost city Paramount Pictures $ 9,100,000 $ 68,500,000 ~ 3600 -38%
Batman Warner Bros. $ 6,600,000 $ 359,100,000 ~ 3300 -40%
All everywhere and at once A24 $ 6,000,000 $ 6,000,000 ~ 1200 + 460%
Unknown Sony Pictures / Colombia $ 2,100,000 $ 142,200,000 ~ 2300 -43%
Spider-Man: No way home Sony Pictures / Columbia & Marvel Studios $ 900,000 804 $ 100,000 ~ 1100 -38%
Jujutsu Kaisen 0: Film Funimation $ 775,000 $ 31,200,000 ~ 1000 -61%
The dog Issued by United Artists $ 725,000 $ 61,400,000 ~ 1100 -45%

* All forecasts are subject to revision before first confirmation of previews on Thursday or estimates on Friday from studios or official sources.

The counting of theaters is updated, confirmed by studios. The table above does not necessarily represent the top ten, as some studios do not complete the count of places on weekends and / or intend to report cash fees before publication.

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