On Monday, the Eagles and the Saints made a big trade, changing several elections less than a month before the 2022 draft.
For the Eagles the central point of return is the choice in the first round of 2023, which will give them some flexibility at this time next year with two choices in the first round.
Here is a complete look at the terms of trade:
Eagles get: № 18, № 101, № 237, 1st round selection 2023, 2nd round selection 2024
Saints receive: No. 16, No. 19, No. 194
Aside from replacing the election this year, it really means Eagles fans will get hurt against the Saints in 2022. The worse they perform, the better the choice will be in the first round of 2023. It’s kind of like watching the Colts last year without having to control the number of shots for a single player. It’s easier: just get sick to make the saints stink.
And there’s a decent chance the Saints aren’t very good in 2023, despite what one of their best players thinks.
Last year, last season as Sean Peyton as head coach, the Saints went 9-8 to take second place in the NFC South, but still missed the playoffs. Last year they had a 5-7 record before winning four of their last five games. Last November, the Eagles defeated the Saints 40-29.
More / less
Although they won nine games in 2021, the total number of Saints wins in 2022 is 7.5, according to PointsBet. (For reference, Eagles on 8.5.)
More than 7.5: -130
Less 7.5: +110
Here’s a look at the numbers more and less for other teams in the NFC South: Buccaneers (11.5), Panthers (6.5), Falcons (5.5). Despite having a few weaker teams in their division, the Bucks are still favorites to repeat.
The four teams that finished with 7 wins in 2021 are selected from numbers 8-11 in the 2022 draft. Three teams with 8 wins in 2021 are selected from 12-14 numbers.
Choice 8. Atlanta: 7-8
Selection 9. Denver (SEA): 7-10
Choice 10. Seattle (NYJ): 7-10
Choice 11. Washington: 7-10
Choice 12. Minnesota: 8-9
Choice 13. Cleveland (HOU): 8-9
Selection 14. Baltimore: 8-9
So if the Saints finish where they are more / less, then the Eagles will most likely be looking at a choice in that 8-14 range.
The strength of the schedule
Here’s a look at the Saints’ Rivals in 2022:
Domestic: falcons, panthers, beeches, sheep, hawks, crows, Bengals, raiders, Vikings
Road: Falcons, Panthers, Bucs, Cardinals, Browns, Steelers, 49ers, Eagles
Of these, 14 opponents seven (Bucks, Rams, Bengals, Raiders, Cardinals, 49ers, Eagles) reached the playoffs in 2021.
According to final records in 2021, the Saints have the seventh most difficult schedule in the NFL. Their opponents went with a score of 152-136-1 (.528) last season. Based on the percentage of wins in 2021, here are the 10 hardest charts in 2022:
1. Sheep: .567
2. Cardinals: .543
3. Bengali: .536
4. Buccaneers: .535
t-5. 49ers: .533
t-5. Chiefs: .533
t-7. Raiders: .528
t-7. Saints: .528
9. Falcons: .524
10. Chargers: .519
Of course, using the amount of wins in the 2021 season may not be the most accurate way to assess how difficult next season’s schedule is.
Based on the projected wins of his rivals, Sharp Football says that Saints is the 15th most difficult schedule in 2022. So the middle.
After the 2021 season, Peyton decided to step down as head coach of the Saints, and New Orleans promoted defense coordinator Dennis Allen.
Under Peyton the Saints had an impressive steady success. Peyton’s record for 15 seasons as head coach in New Orleans is 152-89, and he reached the playoffs in nine of those seasons, winning 9-8 in the postseason. The Saints won the Super Cup in 2009.
Since 2006, when the Saints hired Peyton (even including a year of dismissal), the Saints have finished fourth in football after the Patriots, the Packers and the Steelers.
Allen may be a good head coach, but he is unproven and it is hard to imagine that he will have such a long-standing success as Peyton. It feels like the Saints are in a strange purgatory between running Peyton / Drew Breeze and rebuilding.
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The big reason for success in Peyton’s years was the future Hall of Fame defender, who resigned after the 2020 season. This offseason the Saints have gone far after Deschanel Watson, but it looks like they will go with their backup plan after signing a two-year contract with James Winston.
Perhaps the Saints are using the extra choices they got from the Eagles to climb up and draft a defender, but then we’re talking about an inexperienced rookie or insufficient former overall choice № 1 under the center. In any case, this may not lead to many victories of the Saints in 2022.
The 28-year-old Winston is breaking out of a torn PKS that ended his 2021 season ahead of schedule. He actually played well last year before the injury and led the Saints to a 5-2 record with 14 touchdowns and 3 interceptions before the injury. But during his career Winston has made 135 touchdowns and 91 interceptions. Since joining the NFL in 2015, Winston 91 interceptions are the biggest in the league.
Aside from Winston, the Saints had a quiet period of free agency, most likely because they started around $ 75 million over the limit. Because of this, they lost the young security of Marcus Williams and the veteran who left Theron Armstead’s tackle. They did replace Williams with a cheaper option, Marcus May, and reportedly visited Tirana Mathieu this week. The return of WR Michael Thomas after an ankle injury in 2022 should also help, but will he be back in shape in 2019? His last game was against the Eagles at Linc in December 2020.
In any case, having lost Watson, the Saints have not taken any steps that would make them think they will get better in 2022.
The Saints now have two first-round players – numbers 16 and 19 – and if they don’t use them to exchange for a quarterback, they will use them on good players who should help them immediately.
The Eagles have to hope this is not the case. They should hope the Saints have greatly overestimated their list, and it will end badly for New Orleans.
Eagles fans will be excited to cheer against the Saints throughout 2022.